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 Betreff des Beitrags: Does Consistent Play Help a Team Win-
BeitragVerfasst: Do 17. Aug 2017, 09:58 
Registriert: Do 17. Aug 2017, 09:41
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One of the many insights in the future from Bill James was the fact that a teams winning percentage could effortle sly be estimated based simply on the difference between the runs they scored and also the runs they allowed. Even though James Pythagorean Expectation cannot account for all variation in team leadership, it will a fantastic job.
One po sibility that isn't accounted for is that teams may distribute their runs differently, game to game, than others through the season. Its po sible that two teams with identical run differentials could have significantly different records. Heres a brief example:
A sume two teams, A and B, both with a run differential of 0 (both score and allow 29 runs) during the period of a 10-game series against one another. The Pythagorean Expectation tells us that both teams must have an eye on 5-5. However, in this scenario, team B wins 6 from 10.
Game12345678910Team A10111122335Team B1443353114The difference here is in how both teams distributed their runs. Team B was more consistent in terms of their runs scored compared to Team A. Now, this example Adidas Torsion Allegra Shoes only looks at 10 games from the same opponent. Will a teams consistency really impact their chances of winning over the course of 162 games?
Looking at teams in the last 6 seasons rapid answer is le s volatility (specifically in relation to runs allowed) results in more wins. The effect was much greater for run prevention than run scoring. Therefore the more consistent a team is in terms of their runs allowed, game by game, the greater wins they should expect. However, greater volatilityparticularly in run preventionleads to more wins than expected based on a teams Pythagorean Expectation. The le s consistent teams were when it comes to their game by game run prevention, the greater wins above their expected wins they realized.
The topic of team run distribution as well as player consistency or volatility continues to be handled a number of times previously.
One from the earliest compares the distribution of team runs ended by Keith Woolner at Baseball Prospectus (see here and here). Tom Tango accompanied about this together with his own model for predicting runs per game distributions.
Sal Baxamusa took these studies one step further in the Hardball Times and started teasing the implications of various run distributionsi.e. does team leadership change for the way they distribute their runs. Inside a 2007 article, Baxamusa demonstrated that teams didn't obtain a advantage when they scored greater than five runs per game. Therefore, the le s variation teams had around their run Unisex Shoes Shoes scoring (i.e. the more they scored between 3-6 runs per game) the higher their likely winning percentage.
Baxamusa suggested that although run scoring should be consistent, run prevention should be le s so. The logic took it's origin from some work by David Ga sko that for top-line starters you'll need a more consistent pitcher, but with le ser arms you would like more volatility. Why? Imagine two different pitchers that both average exactly the same runs allowed (say, 5 per game). Over the course of 30 starts, Pitcher A surrenders exactly 5 runs in every start, while Pitcher B gives up 10 runs in 15 starts and 0 runs in the other 15 starts. Pitcher A is likely to go 15-15, while Pitcher B will probably go 18-12.
Ga skos research started to bridge the gap between the utility of team consistency and what that means for roster construction based on individual consistency. Our own Eric Seidman checked out individual pitcher consistency inside a set of articles while at Baseball Prospectus back in 2010 and I checked out this problem for hittersand pitchers at Past the Box Score last year.
For Adidas Yeezy Boost 650 Shoes this article, I needed to look at whether being pretty much consistent gave teams a benefit when it comes to their winning percentage.
Here would be the details.
Methodology:To start teasing this idea out I calculated the game by game difference of every teams runs scored versus their seasonal average for every team from 2006 through 2011. Used to do the same for his or her runs allowed. Because teams have different averages I calculated what is known as the coefficient of variationsimply the standard deviation of a set of numbers divided by their mean. This can help to control for the impact that higher run scoring minimizing run prevention can have on standard deviations.
Runs Scored Volatility(RS_Vol) = the Coefficient of Variation (Standard Deviation/Average) of the difference between individual game Runs Scored and Seasonal Runs Scored Average
Runs Allowed Volatility (RA_Vol)= the Coefficient of Variation (Standard Deviation/Average) from the difference between individual game Runs Allowed and Seasonal Runs Allowed Average
Results:
Team WinsActual Wins Expected WinsRS_Vol-0.370.16RA_Vol-0.710.85Overall, RS_Vol were built with a negative relationship to team wins. Therefore the more consistent a teams run scoring, game to game, the higher their win total. The relationship was the same for RA_Vol, just much stronger. This runs a bit counter with a earlier thoughts on teamconsistency, as some have suggested that you would favour a far more consistent offense, however a more volatility inside your run prevention.
I also looked the typical wins for teams with different combinations of volatility. Teams which were substandard in terms of their run scoring and run prevention volatility (i.e. le s volatile, more consistent) won 93 games on average. Even teams which were just below average for RA_Vol averaged 84 wins, which further illustrates the benefit of consistency on the bottom (at least, thats what the initial analysis suggests).
RS_VolRA_VolAverage WinsBelow AverageBelow Average93Above AverageBelow Average84Below AverageAbove Average79Above AverageAbove Average68However, the connection looks much different when it comes to whether teams under- or over-performed their expected wins.
RS_Vol includes a positive relationship with wins above expected (or Adidastubular Defiant Shoes just actual wins minus expected wins). So the more volatile your offense the larger your likely wins above expected. RA_Vol was also positively correlated, but to a much higher degree (.85). So for teams that actually outperform their Pythagorean Expectation it is most likely because of the fact that they are wildly inconsistent, game to game, with regards to preventing runs.
What to make of this? I think it leads to some interesting questions, many of which cope with roster construction. Considering that larger impact on wins, should an excellent team concentrate on building a generally consistent offense (particularly at the top and heart from the line-up)? Should a below average team turn to bring in playersparticularly pitchersthat are highly volatile within the run prevention game? What about the rotation? Should you build through consistent 1-3 starters and high volatile 4-5 starters?
As I found in earlier research, volatility is generally not a characteristic that's stable year upon year, so building on it is difficult. However, over time players do seem to display a skill for consistency. In this manner, volatility is much like Clutchhighly variable year to year, but identifiable Adidas Yeezy Ultra Boost Shoes after a large number of observations.
There is lots of work to be done in this area. I plan on looking into these questions more, as well as other authors here at FanGraphs.
Peer review is definitely welcome, so please do send along your own thoughts, theories, or links to similar work.
(Big hat tip to Jeff Zimmerman and Eric Seidman for a sist with this informative article and to Noah Isaacs for uplifting the study)


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